Published in Expert Systems with Applications — Heterogeneous transfer learning for infectious disease forecasting (2026)
A heterogeneous transfer learning framework that pre-trains on data from dissimilar countries to address the single-country data limitation in epidemic forecasting, validated on COVID-19 data from 30 countries. Sole author: Donghyun Lee.
- 1,143 days of COVID-19 data across 30 countries · Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) · source countries selected by Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance
- 40% RMSE reduction over the individual TCN baseline, with an R² of 0.82
- Splitting sources into DTW-distance quartiles, the most dissimilar group reduced RMSE by 12.1% versus the most similar (p = .008)